Peace is possible

If this comment irritates some, spur them into action, perhaps even deep penetrating thought instead of some predictable knee jerk response, then I believe it will have done its job.

I think peace is possible, but first we must ask what sort of peace …. but for the right kind of peace, much within us has to change. But think of how better life would be worldwide if we created instead of taking the easy way to destroy.

I look at the mess we are in, and I wonder will there ever be change short of a peaceful revolution, but even that would be misdirected, because the real problem with our society is that we value the wrong things – for me the only way we can change the future is to change what we teach our children to value. I cannot see any long-term change until we start to do this … how about we start with the basic principle of Socrates http://bit.ly/qW3zgk , further let’s look at Gandhi 7 dangers to Human Virtue http://bit.ly/mOZAoS  we as a world, don’t comply with one item on either list .. Robert Louis Stevenson said “Everybody, sooner or later, sits down to a banquet of consequences” – I think we will choke when our time comes, as it inevitably will.

Countries make friends and reach understanding when they start to Trade, in other words when they form relationships, we need to seek to understand others.  A dream of mine is why not lets all of us, reach out to someone more often as not to make a new friend … pretty soon the whole world would be a friend or a friend of a friend, then we would have an understanding and perhaps the start on the road to peace. Once we can relate to another person, regardless of their race, creed, religion, place as a person. Then perhaps we will have some insight to see the world through their eyes, then and only then will the world begin to change.

By and large our leaders (poor choice of words I know) have no values or moral operating compass. Change will only come about by the will of the most, to force our servants (???), the politicians to listen. We do however have the “Leadership” we deserve, due to our apathy. The trouble with Politicians, they are expedient in their thinking, something that breeds, amoral thinking. I have never thought that Politicians were worth much, as real people, most aren’t, they are weak, morally bankrupt, corrupt, or just not to bright – but you shout to me “they are bright” well if that is true and this is the best they can do … goodness I can only lament for the future of the human race, as we really are participants in our own destruction.

Currently we have few options as the same current flawed thinking exists of both sides of the electoral ballot paper. So what is our response? Systemic change is needed, how do you think we should move forward?  There is nothing wrong with change as it has always has been the only constant, but change must be for the better, not just change for its own sake.

Sustainable systemic Change that improves the lives long-term for of all of humanity is good, change or revolution for its own sake will not work, as violence just breeds violence. Then we have anarchy, and dark times for all.

Mind you non-violence worked for Gandhi and Martin Luther King Jr … perhaps it will work again for us, for humanity. The establishment will try desperately to maintain control until that fateful moment, when perhaps a Policeman or a credible person, says no, then change will happen and it will come in a heartbeat.

Whilst the Euro zone is heading for the biggest financial correction in history, some of the ideology behind it is admirable, perhaps we should apply it to the whole of humanity, where everyone has an equal voice, and no one has a veto. This is why the UN doesn’t work.

Perhaps we should follow those profound words in the US Constitution … “All men (and women of course) are created equal …” these are admirable thoughts which I thoroughly agree with,  but to me some men seem more equal than others … what’s with that by the way ?

The only time we seem to pull together as a species when it is a global threat, then when we all have our backs to the wall, side by side, when we are there very soon, look around and you will see that the enemy, as we are the enemy.

Everyone knows, or should know that Politicians and vested interests are there to stay in power to perpetuate the now or as President Ronald Reagan said “Status quo, you know, is Latin for ‘the mess we’re in”

Further, we don’t learn from history, everything we are doing now, has been done before, recently, the Nazi’s, Pol Pot and the killing fields of Cambodia,  the British Empire, Serbia, Israel, Palestine, NATO, the Friends alliance in Afghanistan no doubt more to come plus innumerable others I have not mentioned, took the decision to kills millions of people for only one reason (labels), because they were different, they thought differently, they believed in something different, it happened yesterday in Nigeria because of flawed fundamentalism – no loving God believes in killing. By and large these forces of death should no longer exist, but we now have new evils, Washington / NATO, and the military industrial machine, that need wars and death so they can survive and pay dividends in more death, so they are really no different from what has come before … they kill innocents and spin it as acceptable collateral damage … they kill, using drones, piloted by some x-box toting functionary 1000 of miles away. Really does Washington, London and Brussels think that they are immune from the consequences of their actions, because if they do, get real, look outside at the world you are creating as a result of your beliefs and you attitudes. I really believe that these evil doers believe it doesn’t apply to them. We have to stop thinking that the end-game for any negotiation where we don’t get our way is to pick up a gun.

As Noam Chomsky said  “Everyone’s worried about stopping terrorism. Well, there’s really an easy way: Stop participating in it”

Truly, I think that the leadership of the world needs a true shakeup, as we transition from the decaying structures and failing systems – We will have to do more with less, and in my view I believe the world would be in far safer hands if we were led  by the feminine of the species, women, but by women I don’t mean testosterone in a skirt …

I truly wonder if the human race will ever grow up, to me we still act as young children at playtime recess.  One day Gaea may  decide enough is enough, let’s be done with this flawed experiment that is the human race and try again … but then she has all the time in the world, whilst we do not.

MPAA and Film / TV Content Production and Distribution – the next 6-10 years

My experience is in content production, distribution, Broadcasting & electronic Media.

Just doing some more research on the current “issue” or alleged issue of Piracy for the motion picture industry, which is primarily represented in the USA by the Trade Organisation the MPAA (Motion Picture Association of America, http://www.mpaa.org).

Now until recently I was aware of the issue, but not of the financial details, now I am actually wondering if there even is a real issue, with the effect of the Global Economic Crisis being seemingly felt across every market segment imaginable, except the motion picture industry, which has according to their own figures had a 15% domestic increase and an International increase of 30% over the years between 2006 and 2010 … wow ! This despite the fact that the number of actual releases in theaters increased just 10.1%.

The price of the admission ticket, rose by 39.4% from 2001– 2010 and yet the cumulative cost of the CPI rose just 27.95% …. ?

OK all that aside …. the rise in the income 2008 –  2009 for theater sales can be expected, as if we go back to the depression, even in harsh economic times (because of the times in fact) the industry has been pretty much recession proof.  The major demographics for the audience goes from 12 to 39 year olds, it is a very niche audience which in these harsher than normal economic times seem to be the only ones that actually have any access to disposable income.

I could go on and on .. however the point is essentially this …. Yes there is a problem with Pirating ( a small one ), but it is not serious, how can it be when year on year the income from sales of theatrical releases has increased far in excess of the CPI … the figures for loss of income presented by the MPAA are not believable.

The following from the immediate past interim CEO, of the MPAA, Mr. Bob Pisano is basically unsubstantiated rhetoric, more commonly known as spin, how can there be a serious problem with over time the income to the industry has increased 30% … such statements as “We will continue to work with our industry partners to fight for common sense ways, through legislative, enforcement and legal avenues, to vigilantly protect the creativity at the heart of our industry from theft.” These kind of statements are making the industry look ridiculous, as well the U.S. Supreme court did rule that just copying did not constitute theft.

I do not agree with piracy, however, this mis-information, is on going and has not be substantiated, they are beat ups by what is essential a trade organisation with a big voice – these statements are not showing the industry in its best light … there are many other industries that employ far more people and families in the USA and worldwide … that actually are in serious and dire straits .. because they don’t have access to the Hollywood Media their voice is lost.  Many families on main street, also have no disposable income to currently invest in any sort of recreation, except free to air TV and maybe cable … remember cable, content on demand and it new variances will be the ever increasing choice for the distribution of content to the wider market.

There are a few issues that the MPAA and the industry in general needs to address… urgently

The price of tickets is not sustainable, bearing in mind that on top of these are the travel, parking, food etc .. taking your children is not the escape it used to be … I took my son to see Avatar at the local cinema and it cost one adult and one child over $40, not including parking, vehicle .. drinks etc…

The lack of growth is also a social one, and manifests as a result of the niche interests of the population, in their online lives – there will come a time, and it is not that far away where people will not go to the movies in anywhere near the same numbers, it is trending down in real terms and will continue to, for lots of reasons, some social, some concerning access, transport and financial to name just some, hopefully before then the studios will have come up with a way to reach people directly via Video Streaming in their lounge rooms, using the dreaded internet … this is here now – so change your business model or else basically … you have less than 5 years, probably less.  I wrote about the effects of technology on the film industry over 12 months ago, and it seems very much to be following the path and the time frame suggested then … in Australia with the NBN (National Broadband Network) this is supposedly designed to provide fibre access with data speeds from 100Mbps to 1 Gbps … this will have a major effect on  the access to On demand services including rich and video media content in Australia.

The Film industry, as with Television needs to start to make relevant stories that people will in the short term at least want to invest money in to go and see … perhaps the new business model is to make low budget movies that are truly an escape from the current meltdown and the huge pressures on families just to get by … but hopefully not too many more regurgitated sequels !!! – mind you that would not be too bad .. if they had a good story, as one can forgive just about anything if the writer and the Directors are at the top of their game -  unfortunately that is not the norm.

Also I have been saying this forever, content distribution is inseparable from content production … if you have funds you need to have been or will be investing in infrastructure for program distribution. The future will not be in venues as it is now, if you don’t now make these strategic investments or at least strategic partnerships, the future is going to be a difficult place as you are going to be a poor position at the bargaining table when it comes time to negotiation in 3–6 years …. because then you will have no distribution infrastructure that you influence, control or own.

Future distribution will not be by a Bricks and Mortar Theatrical release, ultimately the distribution will be in the form of data perhaps via a Peer to Peer network such as a Bit Torrent data stream, as explained in a previous article here  … think outside the box people .  Further the expansion of major releases will become a rarity, not the norm, and hopefully Hollywood will actually become a mature business instead of what it appears to be at the moment, an ego driven teenager with entitlement issues.

The uptake of new movies will have to have relevance to the actual market, talk to them, the real users, use the internet, that is its strength, where relationships and communities are the norm, not the exception .. also personally I am pretty tired of the predictability of the content coming out of Hollywood .. what about an original story please – also how about appealing to some level of standard and not the lowest common denominator.

To expand on the above via a personal observation, there are some unique and profoundly creative talents in the film industry, starting with unique writers that are true story tellers, their connection with the viewers illicit profound emotive responses, exceptional Directors with intuitive timing and insight, fantastic Cinematographers, gifted actors and support staff … with so much raw talent to draw from why is it so hard to put it all into an exceptional film that does not necessarily follow the prescribed formula … but that creates a real connection, and is not just some faded copy of a something that was once a profound original work.

Mainstream mass media including film, is normally a passive experience (except in the case of that true creative work), this mass media model also includes Newspapers, Radio, Cable / Satellite and terrestrial TV …. there is normally little to no  interaction with the viewer, that is not where we are going, the future will trend …. in the longer term your content will need to illicit a emotive response, or if you cannot create a masterpiece then at the very least, interactive ….ultimately the technology and the data speeds will materialize to make this a reality … unfortunately, the current trends for content is that it will come out of virtual sets, and actors as we understand them now may be a thing of the past, computer generation will be much more prevalent than it is even now.

Concerning the future distribution model, basically the Telco’s that currently own the fiber, need content just as much a you will need their fibre for distribution, however I guess if there is no successful negotiation, between you, then I guess content of the ilk of “I love Lucy” and “A Wonderful life” will be the only content … for distribution … funny that.

I realise that if I was again actively involved with the industry, that is back in the club, after a while, perhaps as little as three years, this type of objective perspective would be nearly impossible for me to create, as unfortunately those in the industry have an total inability to be objective and relate to their viewers, their users .. they are too busy doing, but doing what actually ? However a revelation will be forced upon the industry sooner or later, as they clearly don’t get it … change is here, recognise it, or suffer the inevitable changes that will be forced upon you, which you won’t like so much – it’s like I say “Change is the only constant, how we experience it, is up to us” ….

Here  is the link to the Actual financial report of the MPAA, the MPAA Theatrical Report 2010 PDF ….

Tags: Content+Production, MPAA, Piracy

Is Bit Torrent really a threat for Old Media ?

Whilst on the surface the Bit torrent application using Peer to Peer technology has the capacity to do harm , again I look at the response to this in a productive viewpoint, how can the studios benefit from this obvious market potential …

For software applications, it is only a threat if the license key operates with the software –  this comes back to the software providers own encryption and licensing software system.

For Video, it is obvious, from the numbers of users, it is well proven point that there is a market for TV shows and Movies … this can be shown by the number of Torrent participants in the data stream … why isn’t it an option to pursue, that the content producers offer a legal stream of product, such as the Australian ABC does when product is broadcast within Australia, OK it is downgraded and in Mp4 Video format, but for those who have missed the show, or want to keep it for their amusement, what is the harm ? – it is a domestic only quality. Alternatively I can view the content in high quality using the i-View program replay service … for a limited time ?  Excellent interactive relationship for a transparent relationship with your customer.

For those outside of the studios primary market, which is primarily that of the continental USA, it is impossible to gain access to the content legally –  due to the Networks own licensing restrictions, people outside the studio zone, cannot view the product on-line … so the Bit torrent Software was born and is used as a response to this limitation. I am speaking primarily here of TV programs, the software allows someone to upload a program that was in the Public Domain, as it has been broadcast, so they can viewed in another geographic zone … In Australia none of the Video Streaming services allow access to the content for users in Australia, due to licensing issues, why is this ? Surely if I was subscribing to a US content provider –  streaming content, my own internet id (Geo location) would identify what geographic zone I was in, and thus my licensing region, and thus the content licensee for this zone … in my view the money I pay for access could be quite easily sent to the applicable country license holder for a particular content, by the i/p address as a subscriber … you guys need to start thinking outside of the box, and there is a substantial  increase in income that will flow once you do something so simple, for no appreciable increase in costs, as well as the increase in net due to increases in good will and lack of a confrontation relationship and the lack of a divisive enforcement arm – which lacks any credibility.

Stripping of a DVD to obtain the Video Stream is something that is another kettle of fish all together, as it was a licensed program, for one viewer only (household) –  I can see the harm here, all though it is no way to take as credible the loss of income the studio pundits claim, you cannot view the numbers and directly equate them to lost profits. However I do not agree with the commercial use of the Bit Torrent service where people pirate these streams to produce pirate copies to DVD’s …. however from the research I have undertaken, talking to users past and present, for a single user .. I have been told by many people I have spoken to actually go onto to buy legitimate licensed products, using the downloaded product as a trial if you like.

The content creators themselves have used the Bit Torrent facility, in the recent past and continue to do so. Recently there was the much heralded release of almost the final installment of a major franchise – (one more to go) … a program full topped and tailed (a teaser .. less than 40 minutes long) was released onto the Bit torrent before the theatrical release date … I have written about this as a use by the studios, when it suited them as a “legitimate marketing channel”, they used the Bit torrent facility, that obviously created interest and did make a positive difference at the box office.

However, by creating scarcity, the studios, the content creators / providers have created a secondary market that is so substantial –  what is their response, instead of being constructive and transparent, and working with the internet, to provide a access channel to provide access to this content, they go to these facilitator organisations that further exacerbate the situation, they troll the internet for alleged offenders. I have been so informed that the content providers / studios supposedly farm out their enforcement to self styled cowboys who I have been told send out unsubstantiated claims of infringement … for which they have no way of gaining anything positive from, except that it creates distance between the two parties and a them and us mentality. Nothing will be resolved … hopefully though, we are looking for a solution here … right ?

Surely if the studios, created a way whereby people could legitimately download a copy of the content, a downgraded quality for free or via something like an i-store or similar content provider at a reasonable cost of say $1 per TV episode (bear in mind there is no medium and the user pays for the data downloaded), the problem would essentially evaporate ….. or provide a encryption licensed video feed on something like a i-View format file, to provide the content …. or invest in a new Video file format that could not be hacked with a one user only encryption key.

Further to these claims of loss that is put forward by the license holders and their cowboys, this is substantially a fallacy, as it looks at the numbers of downloads and equates them to sold product at a sell price, this is such manipulation, as those downloads will not transfer to income unless the studio actually puts a 21st century procedure in to capitalise on this … if those that are seeking content could legitimately source product from the studios, free for a lower quality downloaded copy of pay for it at a reasonable price for a quality product then I believe the problem, much of these I am a victim mentality the content providers, particularly the spin the TV studios are pushing, is substantially a beat up and the problem would essentially evaporate.

If we view the actual financial performance of studio licensing, in context of the United States Balance of payments for 2008, 2009 and now in 2010 –  you can see increases in licensing income for overseas content sales which has increased over these years.

Incidentally there is only one major TV network in the USA that gets it … and coincidentally only one in Australia … that is making an attempt to provide access .. unfortunately the worst network is someone who should know better and I thought that they did

I wrote about this and other aspects of the affect of the internet on Old Media models in a white paper as far back as 2008 … with different ways to re-structure their business models even then, it is obvious that no one is yet ready to see a solution here and start thinking outside of the box now or then.

My view of the Internet and Older business models, is a couple of things, (1) The internet user demands a different relationship with content providers & (2) Use the internet to form communities, and build a sustainable interactive relationship – this is its strength (3) Please think outside the box … you cannot win this – make some money by approaching it another way … and what you can do best, that is to produce excellent content .

My advice to the studios, capitalise on the opportunity …. focus on your craft instead of sending all your profits to the lawyers.

Tags: Is+Bit+Torrent+an+issue+?, Bit+Torrent+is+it+a+solvable+issue+-+Yes+it+is

The informed voter .. is it a falacy ?

This from an Email I received from Eric Francis of Planet Waves, interesting how little we know about the people and policies that control our today and our tomorrows. My thoughts are that people vote with their hearts or out of loyalty … not enough of us know enough to make an informed choice. Do you think the spin merchants have done their job ? My view is that the problem is not with the politicians who some may view have little in the way of  an ethical or honourable base, so really  they can’t help themselves, the truth is something to manipulate .. so the problem lies with us .. because we again don’t know the truth, don’t want to know the truth, or don’t care –  so we accept the spin .. and concentrate on what is important, the latest diversion, the latest TV show or sports match.

So why do you think we don’t examine objectively what a candidate supports and what they don’t … but whatever you decide to do, do something VOTE … because if you don’t you cannot comment on the outcome of an election, a new law, because when it mattered and you had the chance to vote you weren’t interested enough to have your say, and make a difference.

From the Email as below…

Last night I called my friend Jenny down in Miami to witch her a happy Samhain and pagan new year, which was overnight Oct. 31 to Nov. 1. She told me a story. Friday night she’d been invited to a gay Republican Halloween party. I have trouble understanding concepts like ‘gay Republican’, but some political interests appear to be very good at getting people to go against their own.

The conversation included the usual griping about the economy and the Constitution. We’re all gonna man up and do something’ about these tax-and-spend, commie socialist Muslim-lovers. Forget the fact that the Teabag movement has branded itself the Gay K K.

So Jenny took them on.

“I’ve learned not to tell people what I think, but rather to ask them what they know,” she said, as a preface to her story.

First she asked if anyone who had an opinion had ever taken an economics class. Nobody had. Had anyone read a book about economics? Nobody had.

“So how can you have an opinion on which candidate is going to have a better economic policy?”

No answer.

She then moved onto the Constitution. There are a lot of candidates waving the Constitution lately — suddenly it seems nobody is following the thing, and since the lapel flag went out of style it’s become fashionable apparel to ‘prove’ your patriotism. As long as you don’t go too deep into separation of powers, and where laws originate, or the Bill of Rights.

Again she inquired. Nobody knew what was in the First Amendment. In fact nobody could name the basic components or any facet of the Bill of Rights except the Second Amendment. Nobody had read the Constitution or a book about it. Everyone had an opinion about which candidate was ‘better’ but none was even vaguely informed.

She explained that we don’t live in a democracy; we live in a constitutional republic. In a democracy, the majority can take away the rights of any minority faction. In a constitutional republic, the constitution stands as the mediator. In theory, Democrats could vote to take away the rights of any minority, and Republicans would adhere to the Constitution as how we protect the rights of any minority faction and still do the business of society. But at the moment, the world is a bit inside out and upside down.

We are in an election cycle characterized by candidates who won’t talk to reporters (and a candidate for governor in New York who threatened to murder a top journalist, with the cameras rolling), by anonymous money being funneled into races in remote districts, and by many candidates who decry ‘big government’ and then plan to get into office, collect paychecks and enjoy taxpayer-supported health insurance; some will get it for the rest of their lives. Many of them are millionaires.

It is amazing to hear people who collect and depend on Medicare speak against Medicare; to hear poor people support candidates who would eliminate the minimum wage, cut Social Security or give it to a totally unregulated Wall Street, and then complain about over-regulation. It’s beyond my comprehension to understand why any woman would vote for a candidate who wants to make a woman exercising her reproductive rights into a crime. Why would anyone want to repeal a law that protects people from insurance companies banning them if their child has a pre-existing condition? But, it seems that many do. And they may have no clue what they’re against.

This all may sound like an argument not to vote — but actually I’m here to remind you to make some time to vote Tuesday. I know it’s a small gesture, and we need to participate in our constitutional republic every day of the year. But Tuesday is an especially good day. The kinds of problems our country, and our world, are facing call for our attention and involvement.

Arcimoto Pulse

Hi… here is something I thought was interesting a new electric 2 seater car, made in the USA..

You can contact them…

Arcimoto, LLC
544 Blair Boulevard
Eugene, OR 97402

(541) 683-6293

here is the link to their website…http://www.arcimoto.com/concept

Bonuses – Banking and others

Now with the European Union likely to legislate to specify how bonuses will be paid, for instance a large benefit is only able to have a 20% cash bonus… I am sure the affected people are even now re-structuring their pay to counteract this… perhaps by increasing the fixed component of the pay package…

In the United States it seems is not going to legislate, but issue guidelines… which I am sure that they will be bent, sidestepped and outright broken as a result.

However staying in the USA for a moment, something new has come to my attention…. a new basis for paying bonuses… as we know once of the companies, formerly a major casualty of the sub-prime fiasco and their own corporate greed at that time, has come up with what I believe is a solution… that Compensation for those who receive bonuses should be tied more closely to corporate debt rather than equity… what a resounding good idea, as well as responsible one… how unlike a Corporation.!

I am speaking here of AIG (American International Group) who announced that it will link incentive pay to the value of their insurer’s bonds.

This makes cowboy activities less likely, especially as a short term tactical strategy, and I hope this will turn the train around and move it back to responsibility not only to the company, the industry but also the shareholders – but also to the Corporate world in general.  I believe that these types of incentives protect the interest of bondholders and the ultimate value of the company… this will come to be a good strategy especially in uncertain times, and more particularly when a company’s solvency is in question.

Perhaps the rest of the world, particularly The European Union as well as all markets affected by this disease should take notice

A brief view of the USA

Currently with all the necessary hype, the compromises and the deal making, the United States Senate looks as though they will pass the unemployment support and Health assistant bills as per the following link from USA today… but again we come back to the essential problem that we have with the USA, if they were a person they would be accused of a felony as they are writing unfunded cheques.

Who owes the US debt ?  China, Saudi, Japan..!  I guess I have said enough.

With the disclosed long term liability of the USA sitting at in excess of Ten(10) Trillion dollars and the Un-disclosed amount , probably ten times this. The USA is in all sorts of a mess.

Currently instead of an lessening of the unemployment rate, we have the USA getting worse, see the figures below (an extract) and the link to the Wikipedia information here

European Union 9.3 %

Burma 9.40 %

India 9.50 %

Croatia 9.60 %

Hungary 9.7 %

United Kingdom 7.80%

United States 9.70%

Russia 9.9%

France 10.0 %

So much for the USA doing something constructive to resolve their problems, instead of concentrating of the income issue and increasing the amount of money coming into the coffers by putting people back to work – they have spent untold billions writing cheques for programs they have no way of funding without going further into debt… and making the strategic policy of the USA subject to influences from Beijing, Tokyo and Riyadh.  Meanwhile, those people that have traditionally supported free enterprise (I am not talking about the Republicans here) and are working all the hours that are possible to create a income, find themselves being taxed into oblivion..

Not only now, has main street paid the money to support the generosity to banks and corporate America (without it seems, any conditions) – now the disposable income, increasing the likely hood of unemployment becomes real to millions of Americans – but what are the consequences on the children… do they get the vocational or scholastic education they need to drive the USA back to a semblance of their former self, or will the USA make the mistake (if they haven’t already) of becoming a third world country.  The one measure of this in my view is the focus of the country on educating its citizens – currently too many people world wide have few prospects of employment. However at least it may stop the movement of jobs overseas to China and India… Yes I know, I don’t really believe that myself.

Because the real issue in the USA is the short term focus of the corporate culture, that they only think in 3 month chunks, they have no long terms view, therefore they are not investing in the future, by investing now.

More to come soon… or why there will be another financial crisis…  unless we actually do something to regulate the banking and finance sector.. many countries have, those that did, do not feel the effects of this ongoing financial crisis that we are experiencing…

Financial Crisis – update

Before, during and now, after the initial developments in this financial crisis – business has gone on as it has in the past… a crucial element seems to have been overlooked… and that is necessary Change Management within these organisations… we need to change the way they think, otherwise we are just marking time until it all happens again in the USA or somewhere else in the Global community.

The Commercial World as always is being driven by improved margins, from the incredible daily profits experienced on Platforms, to productive companies dealing in providing end-user products and services – they are at least creating something that is tangible – down to Mr. & Mrs America being paid less than 5-10% per year (which is taxable) on their hard earned dollars… the difference between the rich and the poor is widening exponentially.

To me it seems that the basic premise of how these organisations function has not been seen as important… since the Glass-Steagall Act was revoked… we have been heading for this.  The basic way these organisations operate has not changed… (although controls have and are being introduced) we still see organisations basically owned and controlled by various Governments around the world, still paying bonuses… outside of normal guidelines.. and these Governments seems to have no control, they are willing to use.

Meanwhile main street in the USA has to pay for all of this… it is something they do not understand… and like the stages of grief…. sure denial is one of them, however the other stages of grief need to be considered, one of them being anger… so I am not sure we have got to denial as yet, in the stages of grief…  for their less than enviable debt burden, not of their making, why they are in debt, and most likely some generations to come will be…..

The reaction from Governments world wide has been lets run around and put out fires… this can be related to a Doctor treating the symptoms and not the cause… we are not out of the woods yet… it will take whole generations to change attitudes… if it is even possible, I do not see it as even possible until the basic premise of focus on short term reporting cycles, and the payment of unrealistic bonuses, changes within organisations – when we were in the middle of the crash we saw CEO’s and Senior people being given Golden parachutes basically being paid for their lack of focus, as they were obviously not concentrating on minding their businesses.

To date for the American people the only recourse for severe disappointment has been by the ballot box… I am not sure this will be their only recourse in the future.  This is a significant system failure, and the underlying root cause has still not been addressed.

Change the way that the people that run these organisations, and then we are on a path to stable financial infrastructure… don’t and it is going to happen all over again.

Tags: Change+Management, Change+is+the+only+answer+for+the+long+term

Google

How long is your memory…?

Not that long ago, Google presented itself as being the Internet Search engine to end all search engines… and at that time it was true, but no more… now they are into hardware, phone, laptops, and software of course… in the past Google cried wolf about how much power Microsoft had… its reach into software and on the net…

Is anyone else concerned about one company having such a all powerful position – with a possible errant piece of code it would have us all at their mercy… perhaps there are errors already – so we may already be at risk ? do you think that it is arrogance on their behalf, perhaps they feel entitled…  to rule the Internet technology world..?

I don’t believe in putting all my eggs in on basket and hence whilst I have used Google and Bing mainly… I will use anything that does the job .. currently Google has the edge… I wonder if they are getting to the point where they might become targets for monopoly / anti-trust suite – I certainly think if they are not now … it sure won’t be too far away…   then Microsoft can relax with the shoe firmly on the other foot.

Tags: Google, Is+google+too+big, Google+anti-trust

Commodities and Ethics

Commodities is a fascinating sector to work in – the trading on everything from Oil, Gas, mineral and food commodities is essential for the worlds economies.  Generally it is however the most difficult place to actually do a deal, because of the lack of any effective control, regulations or transparency in its dealing with the other companies in the sector.

My company is acting primarily at the point as a seller mandate for those sellers who have products to sell… well you may think that is wonderful, because no matter who actually buys the product you are selling we get paid, this is right, however there are a few assumptions with that line of reasoning… as with every human endeavour the single most important part of dealing in this sector is due diligence on the supplier, the product, the seller and buyer chains including the mandates and of course the actual buyers.

Now currently I have a deal for 30 million barrels of JP54 (jet fuel) do u think I can find a real buyer who can follow the procedures on this deal ?  Lots of talk, lots of rhetoric, lots of promises, but no actual real buyer… the majority of buyers want POP (Proof of Product) before they will show any POF (Proof of their funds) – unfortunately sellers will not provide anything to a buyer until they have shown Proof of Funds… so we are in this difficult place.. which always comes down to who will blink first…

Sellers have to follow specified procedures, because normally these procedures are forced on them in a direct response to their suppliers, who are generally refineries.

Quite frankly if I hear one more buyer tell me he wants POP, proof of product,,, before providing anything I think I will scream… POP is like the title document to you house, it is the legal proof that the product exists, and can be lifted.  Too many buyers want Proof of Product, when they have no money of their own, because they need the POP to show their bank or backers to release the fund to buy the product so they can on-sell the product usually without owning the product outright for less than a few moments… this is called flipping….

Essentially if I had a understanding bank manager, and a POP document, I could also trade in Oil… using the POP to take to a major buyer… like I say to these continual requests for POP… if I had POP what would I need you for… you are the Oil trader, you are supposed to actually have the capacity to buy the oil to resell at a higher price.

In the last week I have dealt with five so called buyers, not one of them would stick to the sellers procedures, not one of them was capable of buying the product we have for sale…

Unfortunately ethics, honour, transparency, integrity coupled with competence are very rare beasts to find in the commodities game… sadly.  When you find someone who exhibits these attributes hang on to them, because they are definitely the exception not the rule.

More on this soon..

Tags: Commodities, Oil+and+Gas, No+ethics,+or+honour