Home > Future, Money, Organisations, Opinion, World > Going Forward into the trough..

Going Forward into the trough..

What concerns me is that we have poor memories of just the recent past, and are looking apparently optimistically towards the future, if you believe the talk of the Media about now is a good time to invest, it is if the stock is blue chip.

As with all investing, it is all about how much money can you afford to gamble, investing is about measuring odds from the inputs we receive sometimes from the media, our paid advisors who unfortunately may not all be coming from an impartial position.

Whilst I believe the Australian major banks are well capitalised and well provisioned, and they are priced at the moment as though we are running on top of the game, with little regard to the economy or the proliferary of small and medium companies radically down-sizing or closing all together because of the lack of working capital. There is no point saying to Banks that they have a social responsibility, I am afraid they do not see it that way, all they see as with all Corporate Public companies is to maximize return to their shareholders.

OK. everything on the surface appears to be calm and ordered with the perception at least if you ask the politicians that we are coming out of the recession. Don’t buy this, all it would take is the failure or more likely a bail out of a major Bank and we would tip off the abyss once more, there would seem to be no bottom to the hole we would fall into…..

Now about the Australian Federal Budget… personally some areas of the budget I commend, the national building aspects and the large infrastructure projects, such as roads, schools, hospitals etc are excellent, are way overdue, now what a Federal government has got to do with the building of a next generation, or perhaps the generation after that of high speed Internet, escapes me. I am not suggesting that they should give it to Telstra, but it should hopefully be placed in the hands on someone who knows what they are doing, as quite frankly the majority of the Ministers in the Federal Government do not inspire confidence, as well those that I believe are fundamentally sound are following the old stayed party line of talking ineffectively about the past.. and comparing their actions with those of the Conservatives.

The Labour Party looked more together when they went into power, however the leadership has been somewhat lacking with Rudd out of the country more often than not in the last 18 months…. and his apparent hands on approach to running the country and his metaphorically micro managing of everyone portfolios, unfortunately many critical aspects of his policies are in my opinion – flawed.

The major point in the budget was the basing of the repayment of this almost AUD$200 Billion dollars that the Australian economy with be growing in excess of 4% in the relative short term. Don’t buy it…I think perhaps we will be in this trough for sometime, and looking for a high growth cycle in 5+ years.  How they can make these predictions is beyond me, how can they even suggest this – their Financial modeling has no basis in the past to work forward with these positive outcomes…. however in reality, my feeling is that there will be some major key event that will instigate the true recovery… as in the past, a world war, some event we can all work towards… worldwide… if we just cruise along the recovery will be some considerable time.

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